Which issue prevented Republicans from getting a resounding mid-term victory? Don't listen to people that just wrongly predicted a red wave. Think for yourself.
First things first. Nationwide Republicans got 53 Million votes, 51%, while Democrats got 50 Million votes, or 47%. This is a huge victory for Republicans in the popular vote. But, this did not translate into huge gains in the House, left the Senate in Democrat hands, and gave the Democrats a net gain of 2 governor seats, including in Arizona. Races other than for governor in Arizona did not go so badly for the right. Tom Horne won Superintendent, kicking the awful Kathy Hoffman aside. Kimberlee Yee won handily and will be Treasurer. Abe Hamadeh is still locked in a close race for Attorney General. It appears that State House and Senate narrowly remain in Republican hands. But one has to see these results in front of the background of the awful/evil and unpopular Joe Biden being President, record gas prices, high inflation, a stagnant economy and a far left federal government that declares half the country enemies and 70% (whites) subhuman. In that respect a red tsunami should have happened, but didn't. An overpowering issue must have prevented it.
Second, there is a divide among Republicans, especially between establishment elites and the populist part of the base. Some of the Republican leadership has been pursuing the sabotage of America First candidates over winning majorities in the House and Senate. One prime example of this was sending millions of Dollars to prop up Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, when her opponent is another, more populist, Republican. At the same time national Republicans, on behest of Mitch McConnell, canceled around $20Million of ad buys for Blake Masters in Arizona, which hurt Masters badly against the generously funded Mark Kelly. Masters had been critical of McConnell. After winning the Virginia governorship, the GOP somewhat abandoned education as a winning issue that can convince suburban independents trending left to vote Republican. Also, populists have been attacking the establishment as well. Mitch McConnell is unpopular and often ineffective. But he does deserve considerable credit for delaying hearings for Merrick Garland's nomination to the Supreme Court to replace the then recently deceased Antonin Scalia. This made the seat available to the best of the 3 Trump-appointed justices, Neil Gorsuch. Somehow the GOP has to find a way to come together, despite disagreements. Some heads have to roll. Ronna McDaniel née Romney, daughter of Mitt Romney's older brother, may be a good candidate. For some reason she is chair of the Republican National Committee, RNC, and seems clearly overmatched by this job.
Thirdly, Donald Trump campaigned and endorsed, but he wasn't on the ballot. His recent verbal attack on Ron DeSantis sat ill even with some of his supporters. His insistence on relitigating the 2020 election, to some extent repeated by some of the candidates he endorsed, became more and more off-putting because it simply didn't change anything going forward. Instead of complaining about ballot harvesting, Republicans should ballot harvest as well. In Arizona mail-in voting is popular among voters of all ideological persuasions. Complaining about it too much does not get you anywhere with the average voter, even though it does seem to excite many activists. Having said that, we had reported that at close to 7pm, closing time, there we long lines at a polling station in Chandler and there had been widespread reports of outages and delays for in person voting. This could have depressed Republican turnout and if this was the case, then this needs to be addresses, with a repeat election if needed.
Keep reading to find out about the main reason the GOP performed poorly in the mid-terms.
From 2022 On, Pro-Life Absolutism Sinks Political Careers in Blue and Purple States
In the 1988 Presidential debate, Michael Dukakis was asked if in the case that his wife were raped and murdered, he'd support the death penalty for the perpetrators. A bleeding heart liberal, he said no. His response ended his political ambitions there and then, he lost in a landslide.
In 2022, some voters asked: If I or my daughter were raped, should I/she be forced to carry the product of the rape to term? The answer of people like Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania was: yes, you/she should be. He lost the election for governor by almost 15 points. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson hung on by the skin of his teeth against anti-American ethno-communist Mandela Barnes. A few years ago Johnson had supported a bill that would have banned all abortions, without any exceptions. In red Ohio JD Vance won the Senate seat, but by a smaller margin that would have been expected. Although he supports abortion being permitted before week 15, he is on record saying "two wrongs don't make a right", meaning no abortion in case of rape after week 15.
Kari Lake, who is well spoken, has good optics and policy positions, had no role in the Arizona GOP's handling of the abortion issue. Yet, she did not appear to take a firm stance for a compromise measure either, sort of trying to sweep the issue under the table. Governor Doug Ducey wisely signed a law in early 2022 that limits abortion to the first 15 weeks, a moderate stance. However, a peculiar state law from 1901 outlawing all abortions appears to have been coming back into view as a result of the repeal of Roe v Wade. This odd situation brought abortion to the forefront in Arizona more than in most other places, and allowed otherwise weak Democratic candidates to win or come close to winning by running purely on a pro-choice platform. In addition, Ducey had previously signed, unwisely, a law criminalizing abortion on the grounds of genetic defects, even defects that are incompatible with life outside or even inside the womb.
Paradigm Shift
In a pre-2022 Roe v Wade world, pro-life absolutism did not necessarily spell death to political ambitions, because Roe v Wade enshrined a federal right to abortion. With Roe in place, pro-life absolutism was just grandstanding, without an actual effect on people's lives. But since Roe was repealed by SCOTUS earlier this year, meaning no more federal right to abortion, pro-life absolutist political positions are suddenly very relevant to voters. They are palatable only in deep red states, not in purple Pennsylvania, or, Arizona.
Pro-Life/Pro-Choice Moderation is the Name of the Game
In Florida, Ron DeSantis showed how it's done. While he is personally against abortion, he did not let this overpower sound political instinct. He defused the issue by supporting a 15 week limit, a compromise position that is favored by the vast majority of Americans. In deep blue New York, gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin and the NY state GOP did very well in the mid terms. Zeldin is a pro-life moderate, supporting a measure that would ban abortions after week 20, with exceptions thereafter. In Texas, a red state, the state GOP acted quickly after the Roe repeal, and enacted a heartbeat bill, allowing abortion up to week 6, with exceptions after.
The fact is that most Americans don't want to see viable babies aborted and killed. But they also support choice, up to a limit, and recognize that there must be wiggle room for exceptions in special cases.
The GOP had better learn this lesson, and soon. Imagine a politician who wants to lower your taxes, increase free speech, end pointless wars, but then at the same time wants to take all your guns and prosecute you as a murderer if you use one to defend your home and family from intruders. Would you vote for someone like that, or would you hold your nose and vote for the person who lets you keep your guns but raises your taxes? That's the kind of choice that a number of voters had to make on the abortion issue and it seems some held their nose and chose choice and higher taxes over potentially having to carry to term the product of a rape.
With the election of the awful leftist Katie Hobbs, all the progress on school choice, low taxes, budget discipline, mask mandate repeals, gun rights etc. is at risk. Even on the issue of abortion the GOP lost power in Arizona.
There Are Other Ways to Limit Abortion
Why are there so many medically unnecessary abortions? Look no further than Joe Biden recently telling a teenage girl that she should not entertain a serious guy before turning 30. Translated this means she should sleep around and engage in casual sex until 30. See video below. Casual and unprotected sex leads to the majority of unwanted pregnancies and hence abortions. Societal norms need to be changed (back), and this is best done by holding and using political power, rather than moral grandstanding by insisting on unpopular and unenforceable total abortion bans.
Rather than encouraging teens to engage in casual sex and hence increase the risk of unwanted pregnancies, schools could, if pushed to do so, teach homemaking.
If politicians had the guts to cut off welfare for single mothers (widows excepted), women would be encouraged to find reliable husbands, rather than pursuing casual sex with deadbeats and then having the state, meaning taxpayers, pick up the tab. Our welfare state financially encourages broken families that makes victims out of children who have to grow up without fathers, or, are killed in the womb.