• Ben Cooper

Messy Elections, Outages and Long Lines in Maricopa County

Despite tabulator issues apparently preventing some people from voting, a judge ruled that polls must close at 7pm on Tuesday November 8.


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When we checked a polling station at the Chandler/Gilbert Community College at close to 7pm, we saw more than 100 people still standing in line. The line moved very slowly, leading to long waits for voters.



A Maricopa County Superior Court Judge denied a request by the Republican National Committee, Kari Lake and Blake Masters to extend polling place voting hours until 10 pm and delay the release of early ballot results until 11 pm. Around 60 polling places in Maricopa County reportedly had issues with printers connected to tabulators earlier in the day.


As for results, right now around 70% of all votes appear to be counted as reported by Real Clear Politics. The Maricopa Election Recorder website still shows results as of around 2am last night. Arizona counts mail in ballots first and these tend to favor Democrats, while election day votes, including mail in votes dropped off on election day, are counted last and are expected (though not guaranteed) to favor Republicans. It is important to be careful about this because although this split was the case in 2020, it wasn't in 2018 and hence may not be in 2022 either. Distrust of mail in voting may run high among Republican Party activists, but not among the average Republican voter.


Governor


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With around 70% of the vote counted, Democrat Katie Hobbs currently has a lead of 50.3 to 49.7% over Republican Kari Lake. Assuming that the remaining votes are mostly election day votes favoring Republicans, Lake appears to have a decently wide path to win.


Treasurer


Kimberly Yee - R leads Martin Quezada - D 55 to 45% are per the website of the Maricopa County election recorder, last updated at 2am Wednesday morning. It hence looks like Yee will win.


Superintendent of Public Instruction


Incumbent Kathy Hoffman - D leads challenger Tom Horne - R 52 to 48 as of 2am last night. Horne may pull off a win, but it is not guaranteed.


Secretary of State


Adrian Fontes - D leads Mark Finchem - R 54 to 46%. Finchem may pull it off but has a more narrow path than Republicans running in some of the other races.


Attorney General


Kris Mayes - D is leading Abe Hamadeh - R 52 to 48% as of 2am last night. Hamadeh hence has a path to win if expected trends with election day vote counts hold up.


Senator


Incumbent Mark Kelly - D leads challenger Blake Masters - R by 51.4 to 46.4% with 69% of the vote counted. Masters has a path, but it is far more narrow than Lake's and requires a very strong showing on election day.


CD-4 House Seat


With around 70% of the votes counted, incumbent Greg Stanton - D leads Kelly Cooper - R by 57 to 43%.


CD-5 House Seat


Andy Biggs is already projected to be the winner, holding this seat for the GOP.


State Senator LD-13


JD Mesnard - R leads Cindy Hans - D by 51 to 49%, appearing poised to win, as we predicted.


State Representative LD-13


Jennifer Pawlik - D and Liz Harris - R are leading.


State Representative LD-14


Travis Grantham and Laurin Hendrix, both Republicans, are in the lead.


Chandler School Board, CUSD80


Kurt Rohrs - R is leading with 24% of the vote while Patti Serrano - D is in close second with 23%. Charlotte Golla - R is in third with 19% of the vote, just ahead of incumbent Lara Bruner.


Queen Creek School Board, QCUSD95


James Knox - R looks slated to get a seat on the board, replacing incumbent Ken Brague.


Higley School Board, HUSD60


Anna Van Hoek - R is in second place which if it holds would put her on the board. Roy Morales is last, but the vote count is currently close.


Gilbert School Board, GUSD41


Chad Thompson - R is comfortably in second place and hence looks well positioned to be seated on the board.


Mesa School Board, MUSD4


Rachel Walden - R is comfortably in second place with 22% of the vote and hence appears to be slated to get on the board.


Gilbert Town Council


Bobbi Buchli is currently narrowly ahead of Bill Spence. Both are Republicans but Spence is seen as weaker on many issues than Buchli.


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